Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.020411 0.023154 0.026153 0.029679 0.033715 0.038197 0.043559
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.015706 0.019323 0.023630 0.029152 0.036069 0.044478 0.055522
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.013223 0.017165 0.022133 0.028885 0.037873 0.049496 0.065779
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.011483 0.015569 0.020960 0.028646 0.039402 0.054043 0.075686
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.010479 0.014756 0.020632 0.029367 0.042146 0.060349 0.088586
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.009372 0.013639 0.019711 0.029074 0.043317 0.064438 0.098634
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.008801 0.013209 0.019691 0.030036 0.046364 0.071521 0.113952
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.007834 0.012075 0.018493 0.029050 0.046259 0.073680 0.121631
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.007127 0.011264 0.017695 0.028578 0.046870 0.076963 0.131436
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.006385 0.010324 0.016597 0.027493 0.046326 0.078232 0.137857
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.006151 0.010182 0.016766 0.028516 0.049424 0.085951 0.156534
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005929 0.010036 0.016908 0.029491 0.052515 0.093943 0.176623
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005669 0.009812 0.016910 0.030246 0.055342 0.101859 0.197769
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005247 0.009267 0.016308 0.029853 0.056009 0.105840 0.211740
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004886 0.008798 0.015796 0.029568 0.056832 0.110170 0.226907
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004566 0.008376 0.015333 0.029324 0.057695 0.114647 0.242905
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004404 0.008235 0.015375 0.030063 0.060595 0.123535 0.269549
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004127 0.007851 0.014921 0.029763 0.061315 0.127948 0.286765
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004023 0.007792 0.015091 0.030749 0.064841 0.138718 0.319978
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.003707 0.007288 0.014339 0.029738 0.063942 0.139677 0.330072
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003473 0.006932 0.013856 0.029254 0.064151 0.143128 0.346638
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003196 0.006468 0.013115 0.028142 0.062830 0.142917 0.354018
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003144 0.006468 0.013342 0.029190 0.066587 0.155024 0.394585